Nicolas Forien

I am associate professor ("maître de conférences") in probability at Ceremade, the mathematics department of Université Paris-Dauphine.

Contact


Teaching

Control of Markov chains (M1)

The teaching material is available on Teams.

A review of probability theory foundations (M2 MATH)

Lecture notes (please signal any mistakes)

Research

My research work deals with discrete probability models connected to statistical mechanics:

Activated random walks

The activated random walks model is a system of interacting particles in which particles perform random walks on a graph, falling asleep at a certain rate and being waken up when another particle arrives on the same site.

This model emerged as a variant of sandpile models, which were suggested by physicists to illustrate the concept of self-organized criticality.

There is a phase transition: a critical density separates a stable phase (where particles eventually fall asleep) and an active phase (where activity is maintained).


With Alexandre Gaudillière and Amine Asselah, we showed that in dimension 2 the critical density is strictly below 1, concluding a series of works aimed at demonstrating the non-triviality of the phase transition in any dimension.

Active Phase for Activated Random Walks on the Lattice in all Dimensions
avec Alexandre Gaudillière

Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré Probab. Stat. 60 (2024), no. 2, 1188–1214

doi.org/10.1214/22-AIHP1341
arxiv.org/abs/2203.02476

While the above article deals with the case of small sleep rate, the following publication tackles the more general case:

The Critical Density for Activated Random Walks is always less than 1
with Amine Asselah and Alexandre Gaudillière

Ann. Probab. 52(5): 1607-1649 (September 2024)

doi.org/10.1214/23-AOP1674
arxiv.org/abs/2210.04779

The following work shows that the stabilization of a segment containing a supercritical density causes a fraction of particles to exit at the endpoints. It can be seen as a first step towards the density conjecture, which connects different definitions of the critical density of the model.

Macroscopic flow out of a segment for Activated Random Walks in dimension 1

ALEA, Lat. Am. J. Probab. Math. Stat. 22, 557-577 (2025)

doi.org/10.30757/ALEA.v22-21
arxiv.org/abs/2405.04510

This density conjecture was proved in dimension 1 by Christopher Hoffman, Tobias Johnson and Matthew Junge. The following article presents a new proof of this result, based on a superadditivity property for the stationary density of the model (while the work of Hoffman, Johnson and Junge relies on superadditivity for a different quantity, which is indirectly connected with the stationary density).

A new proof of superadditivity and of the density conjecture for Activated Random Walks on the line

Preprint (2025)

arxiv.org/abs/2502.02579

With Christopher Hoffman, Tobias Johnson, Josh Meisel, Jacob Richey and Leonardo Rolla, we extended a result of Madeline Brown, Christopher Hoffman and Hyojeong Son about explosivity of the model in dimension 1 : starting from a supercritical configuration, one single active particle is enough to wake up all the other particles with positive probability.

Explosivity in 1-d Activated Random Walk
with Christopher Hoffman, Tobias Johnson, Josh Meisel, Jacob Richey and Leonardo Rolla

Preprint (2026)

arxiv.org/abs/2601.03411


Stochastic sandpile model

The stochastic sandpile model is a close variant, which can be seen as an intermediate between activated random walks and the abelian sandpile, the model initially suggested by physicists which launched this line of research.

With Concetta Campailla and Lorenzo Taggi, we showed that the critical density of this model is strictly less than 1 in any dimension:

The critical density of the Stochastic Sandpile Model
with Concetta Campailla and Lorenzo Taggi

Preprint (2024)

arxiv.org/abs/2410.18905

The following article explains how to sample from the stationary distribution of this model on any graph, and studies the case of the complete graph:

Stochastic Sandpile model: exact sampling and complete graph
with Concetta Campailla

to appear in Electron. J. Probab. (2025)

arxiv.org/abs/2507.01572


Self-organized criticality

The concept of self-organized criticality aims at describing some physical systems which present a “critical” behaviour without having to tune a parameter (like temperature) to a critical value. This is one of the motivations to study the sandpile models and activated random walks.

With Raphaël Cerf (my PhD advisor), we constructed several toy models presenting this phenomenon, building upon percolation and the Ising model. Our construction relies on the introduction of a feedback mechanism which forces the system towards a critical regime.

My PhD dissertation (in French):
« Autour de la criticité auto-organisée »
(Around self-organized criticality)

The two following articles present "self-critical" variants of percolation and of the Ising model:

Some toy models of self-organized criticality in percolation
with Raphaël Cerf

ALEA, Lat. Am. J. Probab. Math. Stat. 19 (2022), 367–416

doi.org/10.30757/ALEA.v19-14
arxiv.org/abs/1912.06639

A planar Ising model of self-organized criticality

Probab. Theory Related Fields 180 (2021), 163-198

doi.org/10.1007/s00440-021-01025-9
arxiv.org/abs/2002.08337

The following work considers a model of self-organized criticality build by Matthias Gorny, and studies what happens if the mean-field interaction is replaced with long-range interactions:

An extension of the Ising-Curie-Weiss model of self-organized criticality with a threshold on the interaction range

Electron. J. Probab. 29 (2024), article no. 15, 1–27.

doi.org/10.1214/24-EJP1077
arxiv.org/abs/2110.07949


Interacting random loops

The following article, written with Lorenzo Taggi, Matteo Quattropani and Alexandra Quitmann deals with models of interacting random loops which are connected with several models of interest in statistical mechanics, such as the spin O(n) model, the Bose gas or the double dimer model.

Coexistence, enhancements and short loops in random walk loop soups
with Matteo Quattropani, Alexandra Quitmann and Lorenzo Taggi

Probab. Math. Phys. 5 (2024), no. 3, 753–784

doi.org/10.2140/pmp.2024.5.753
arxiv.org/abs/2306.12102